I have given you my forecast and betting advice for the main event at UFC 218 (Aldo vs Holloway). Now the moneylines and props are outside for the rest of the card, it’s time for a UFC 218 deep dive.
Which underdogs have value? Which struggles should bettors prevent? How do you put together a parlay on tap in the fights? Let’s take a look.
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Golden Underdogs
There is not any large’dog calling out at UFC 218 to me. But there’s 1 man with this card who could defy some relatively steep odds.
Francis Ngannou (-270) vs. Alistair Overeem (+230)
Alistair Overeem may get merked by a bigger and more powerful puncher in Francis Ngannou, however at +230, he is well worth throwing a few pennies in the slightest. Normally I’d place this struggle from the stay-away category, but this really is a significant test for Ngannou, a man who hasn’t been analyzed yet.
Overeem is a veteran of the sport and, although his chin might be suspect, he has among the best fight IQs from the heavyweight division. His smarts and specialized kickboxing ability could give us a large upset along with a wonderful profit. Do not go mad with this, however. Ngannou deserves to be preferred. Overeem is worth a bet.
Felice Herrig (-140) vs. Cortney Casey (+110)
Cortney Casey is not a massive dog, but her +105 moneyline would still net you a good yield or boost a parlay. Both fighters have looked strong, but stylistically, Casey appears to get the size and strength to provide Herrig issues. The only woman who has been able to fit Casey’s physicality was Claudia Gadelha and woman is one of the best in the division. If Casey could pour on the strain, she can overwhelm Herrig and get a small upset win here. Again, don’t go mad and throw down your entire bankroll, but Casey is well worth a couple of shekels.
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